Adam Isacson's Latin America Blog

A horrific graphic from today’s New York Times: since 2001...

Tue, 21 May 2013 13:40:04 -0400

A horrific graphic from today’s New York Times: since 2001 about 2,100 migrants have died while crossing the Arizona border. On U.S. soil.

I’m glad the Times put a story about the migrant deaths crisis on their front page, it hasn’t been getting anywhere near the attention it deserves. Also glad they linked back to a piece I wrote about it a few weeks ago at wola.org. And that the Pima County Medical Examiner’s Office’s geo-mapped database of remains is now online.

Maybe now we can get some more momentum convincing both parties on Capitol Hill to support adding to the immigration-reform bill a relatively small amount of funding for search-and-rescue and for remains identification. Mainly because it would involve some additional cost in a time of tight budgets, this hasn’t been easy to do, despite the humanitarian emergency. Note that of the 300 proposed amendments to the bill in the Senate Judiciary Committee, none have to do with migrant deaths.

A new series from InsightCrime looks at the possibility that...

Tue, 21 May 2013 12:08:16 -0400

A new series from InsightCrime looks at the possibility that elements of Colombia’s FARC guerrillas might break off, or become simply “criminal bands,” during and after the peace process. Here’s a map of guerrilla fronts that InsightCrime sees as most deeply involved in drug trafficking and thus most likely to “criminalize.”

This is something analysts (including me) have been warning might happen, but Jeremy McDermott is the first to dig down and explore the “FARCRIM” phenomenon in detail. Definitely worth reading.

I haven’t read all the text yet, so it may be covered there, but I find it interesting that FARC units in the guerrillas’ traditional heartland of Caquetá, Meta and Guaviare departments — a region of heavy coca and cocaine production — do not appear on this map.

From wola.org: Colombia Peace Process Update (May 20, 2013)

Mon, 20 May 2013 14:44:00 -0400

The first bit of news to emerge after our last Colombia Peace Process Update (March 27) gave cause for concern. The seventh round of talks between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrillas had ended with no agreement on the first of five agenda points, land and rural development. The eighth round, originally scheduled to begin April 2 in Havana, Cuba, was then delayed for three weeks. The reason given was a need for “separate work on sub-points” of the agenda, while negotiators’ support teams “continue joint work.”

In fact, the “break” between April 2 and the next round’s April 23 launch turned out to be a period of intense activity.

Read the rest at wola.org

Pretty remarkable to see this recommendation in an OAS report.

Mon, 20 May 2013 11:42:31 -0400

Pretty remarkable to see this recommendation in an OAS report.

"You are never going to stabilize the rural areas from the top down. We tried that for decade. You..."

Sun, 19 May 2013 19:36:13 -0400

“You are never going to stabilize the rural areas from the top down. We tried that for decade. You have to go in at the local level and work with the community to help them reestablish their resiliencies.”

- Lt. Col. (Ret.) Scott Mann, quoted in The Tampa Tribune.

True enough. Except that the “you” in this quote refers to the U.S. military’s Special Operations Forces, who are doing more and more rural development work, including in countries where the United States is not at war.

Why Special Forces and not civilian development workers? Because the Defense Department sees “stabilization” as a core mission, and in the “war on terror” framework sees the whole world as the battlefield. And also, of course, because the Defense Department has money and USAID does not.

Walking around Santiago yesterday, I was surprised to see a...

Sat, 18 May 2013 15:04:30 -0400

Walking around Santiago yesterday, I was surprised to see a prominent street in Providencia named “September 11 Avenue.”

In Chile, September 11 (which is also my birthday) has a whole other dark meaning: it was on September 11, 1973 that Gen. Augusto Pinochet and Chile’s armed forces toppled elected President Salvador Allende, ushering in a brutal 17-year dictatorship.

Anyway, I just looked it up on Wikipedia. Indeed, this street, once named Avenida Nueva Providencia, was renamed by the Pinochet regime in 1980. And the name hasn’t changed back.

A few thoughts on Colombia and Northern Ireland In mid-April I...

Sat, 18 May 2013 14:42:00 -0400

A few thoughts on Colombia and Northern Ireland

In mid-April I got to join a group of prominent Colombian analysts on a visit to Northern Ireland. There, at an event organized by INCORE, the University of Ulster’s International Conflict Research Institute, we spent a weekend discussing both countries’ experience with peace processes. (PDF of event program)

It has now been 15 years since the “Good Friday Agreement” created a framework for demobilizing Catholic and Protestant militias, sharing power, guaranteeing political participation, and creating a new police force. (I hope I’m getting all this right — I had to give myself a crash course in the Northern Irish process in the days leading up to the trip.) Since then, Northern Ireland has been far more peaceful, despite occasional flare-ups of tensions and the emergence of small violent splinter groups.

The Northern Ireland experience is often held up as a model or example for Colombia to consider as it negotiates a possible end to a 49-year-old conflict with a leftist guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), and possibly soon with a second, smaller, similarly old group, the National Liberation Army (ELN).

Along with the Colombian visitors last month, though, I was struck by the lack of parallels between the Northern Irish and Colombian processes. And I mean besides the obvious ones (Colombia’s conflict is not about nationality or religion, and it is mostly rural, while Northern Ireland’s was the opposite).

We noted some big differences — albeit differences that might carry some lessons for Colombia’s own process. Here are three of them.

Northern Ireland’s peace talks took place amid a cessation of hostilities. The “Mitchell Principles,” developed in 1996 by the mediator, former U.S. Senator George Mitchell, laid out six rules that all parties committed to follow as a precondition for talks to proceed. Colombia, in contrast, is negotiating without a cessation of hostilities: both sides continue to fight, at the same intensity as before, even as they talk.

In Ireland, the cease-fire intended to keep violent acts from causing ruptures in the talks. In Colombia, the government — which has turned down repeated FARC calls for a cease-fire — contends that the talks would end up getting derailed by constant complaints at the table about both sides’ alleged cease-fire violations. (The government position also may owe to reluctance to confront the armed forces, which does not want its hands tied.)
The Northern Ireland process involved parties widely acknowledged to have ties to — or even to be the “political wing” of — violent groups. The most prominent example is Sinn Féin, a political party historically linked to the Provisional Irish Republican Army. In Colombia, this practice is condemned as “combination of forms of struggle.” Parties or movements that practice it by maintaining ties to armed groups are considered lawbreakers and denied legal status.

In the past, Colombia did grant legal status to a party with such ties, but it did not end well. During a failed 1980s peace process, which (like Northern Ireland) involved a cease-fire but not disarmament, the FARC created the Patriotic Union party as a vehicle for an eventual entry into non-violent politics. The party’s candidates performed well at first, winning seats in Congress, mayorships and council seats all over the country. But by the early 1990s the Patriotic Union had been largely exterminated, with as many as 3,000 of its members killed by paramilitary groups and drug traffickers, often aided and abetted by the security forces.

Unlike Colombia, Northern Ireland did not witness a mass slaughter of Sinn Féin and other militia-tied parties. Today, their leaders are among some of the country’s most recognized mainstream politicians. They played a key role in demobilizing their comrades.
Northern Ireland’s process sought to include all political parties, regardless of electoral standing. Eight parties, representing nearly all political tendencies, were seated at the table. Colombia’s talks, by contrast, involve just the government and one relatively weak, but persistent and undefeated, guerrilla group. As a result, they are discussing a far more limited agenda of potential reforms than what was on the table in Belfast.

Neither country, meanwhile, has found an effective and satisfying way to incorporate civil society. Northern Irish citizen groups unaffiliated with political parties were not at the table, though an NGO-based political party, the Northern Ireland Women’s Coalition, represented some groups. Instead, social movements’ demands and proposals were channeled through a consultative structure called the Civic Forum, an effort that never quite got off the ground. In Colombia, the negotiators are seeking to incorporate civil-society input at forums in Bogotá hosted by the UNDP and the National University. These produce hundreds of proposals that are then delivered in large binders to the negotiators — and it is not clear what influence, if any, they then have on what gets discussed.

A final lesson that the Colombians and I took away from our time in Belfast and Derry: even 15 years after a successful peace process, people are still going to hate each other. Even as power-sharing and demobilization proceed, citizens on both sides rarely mix. They live in separate neighborhoods, some of them still separated by high walls. Only 6 percent of Belfast’s children attend integrated schools. Fighting still breaks out over nationalistic symbols like banners and parades. Splinter groups still bomb police stations and other targets, albeit infrequently. Angry murals and graffiti proliferate (as in the photos above).

But still, the peace has largely held within the agreed-upon framework. And that is something to which Colombia must aspire.

"Back in 1983, Elliott Abrams, the assistant secretary of state for human rights under President..."

Sat, 18 May 2013 13:50:00 -0400

“Back in 1983, Elliott Abrams, the assistant secretary of state for human rights under President Ronald Reagan, once suggested that General Ríos Montt’s rule had ‘brought considerable progress’ on human rights.”

- Didn’t know he said that. What a bald-faced lie. Thanks to NYT’s Elisabeth Malkin for reminding us. Another reason to keep calling Washington’s airport “National Airport.”

Santiago, Chile this morning. I was here today for a workshop...

Thu, 16 May 2013 23:17:17 -0400

Santiago, Chile this morning.

I was here today for a workshop on regional civil-military relations. Also (since I’m in a city where I don’t know a lot of people) I had some time in my hotel room to add 6 weeks of updates to this site’s Colombia peace dialogues timeline.

Going back home tomorrow.

I guess I’m in Chile today.

Wed, 15 May 2013 08:47:41 -0400

I guess I’m in Chile today.

It’s only been a few years since Gen. Efraín Ríos Montt...

Mon, 13 May 2013 06:52:23 -0400

It’s only been a few years since Gen. Efraín Ríos Montt was not only judicially untouchable, but was one of Guatemala’s most powerful politicians. Backed by ultraconservative segments of Guatemala’s tiny elite, in the late 1990s he was president of the country’s Congress and leader of a dominant political party. The thought of this picture being taken — of the ex-dictator being led off to jail after a guilty verdict for the crime of genocide — was beyond imagination.

“The river-delineated border between western...

Fri, 10 May 2013 06:03:22 -0400

“The river-delineated border between western Brazil’s Acre province (upper left), and northwestern Bolivia’s Pando Department (lower right), demarcates a remarkable difference in land use and development practices.”

Picture taken April 16 by NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team, found in The Guardian.

AFP photo caption in Nicaragua’s El Nuevo Diario: “A...

Thu, 02 May 2013 10:14:00 -0400

AFP photo caption in Nicaragua’s El Nuevo Diario: “A group of young people expressed their discontent about the arrival [on Friday] of President Obama to Costa Rica.”

The U.S. far right sees our president as a Muslim Socialist. The Latin American far left sees him, apparently, as a vampire. Quite a range of stereotypes.

"Colombia, a distant third in population among Latin American countries, now has the region’s..."

Wed, 01 May 2013 17:35:27 -0400

“Colombia, a distant third in population among Latin American countries, now has the region’s second-largest armed forces and its largest army. This buildup turned the tide in the conflict. But it has also altered the Colombian military’s relationship with its civilian leaders.”

- From a 3,500-word piece about civil-military relations in Colombia that World Politics Review published (and made available for free) yesterday.

From “Border Fact Check”: Has “lacking border...

Wed, 01 May 2013 15:23:00 -0400

From “Border Fact Check”: Has “lacking border security” led to a halt in commerce or a spillover of violence at the border?

“Less than 10 years ago, a trip from my home state across the border to Nuevo Laredo, one of several Mexican border cities, was routine. As a result, commerce and culture flowed across the border, benefiting both countries. Today, after years of lacking border security efforts, such travel is almost unthinkable. Sadly, the border has turned into a magnet for spillover violence from Central American drug cartels.”

— Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security, in an April 23 op-ed published in Roll Call.

Rep. McCaul is correct that organized crime-related violence in Nuevo Laredo, Mexico, has diminished travel to that city. Our own interviews with business, social and law enforcement leaders in Laredo, Texas found that it had been years since most had crossed the river into Nuevo Laredo.

But the Congressman, whose Austin-area district lies 250 miles from the border, leaves an incorrect impression that cross-border commerce has stopped, and that Nuevo Laredo’s violence is spilling over the border into the United States.

More at “Border Fact Check”

From an AP photoset posted by NBC News: “Migrants ride on...

Wed, 01 May 2013 06:10:01 -0400

From an AP photoset posted by NBC News: “Migrants ride on top of a northern bound train toward the US-Mexico border in Juchitan, southern Mexico, on April 29.”

guatepolitics: sihubogenocidio: U.S. President Ronald Reagan...

Wed, 01 May 2013 06:00:45 -0400

guatepolitics:

sihubogenocidio:

U.S. President Ronald Reagan meets with General Ríos Montt after he came to power in 1982 via a U.S.-backed military coup.

Ohhhh, Ronnie… Many Latin@s remember Reagan as the father of IRCA, which regularized immigration status for many Latin@s in the US. South of the border, though, he was kicking it with Ríos Montt and hand-waving at (correct) allegations that the US was supporting a genocidal military dictator.

I just returned last night from a long weekend in Northern...

Tue, 30 Apr 2013 20:12:08 -0400

I just returned last night from a long weekend in Northern Ireland. Along with a delegation from Colombia, I got to take part in a remarkable discussion about both countries’ peace processes. It was hosted by the University of Ulster’s International Conflict Research Institute.

We had a chance to walk around some of the historically conflictive neighborhoods of Belfast and Derry. In Irish Republican neighborhoods, we were struck by how often political activists used images of Latin American leftism to promote their cause.

Those who oppose British rule frequently displayed banners, murals and signs evoking the region’s “anti-imperialist” leaders, from Che Guevara to Hugo Chávez. Also on display were symbols of Palestine, South Africa’s ANC, and the U.S. civil rights movement. But the Colombian delegates and I were astonished to see Latin American leftists so frequently evoked.

At the end of March, the U.S. Border Patrol quietly posted to...

Fri, 12 Apr 2013 15:43:27 -0400

At the end of March, the U.S. Border Patrol quietly posted to its site a new set of statistics [PDF] that depict a developing humanitarian emergency on the U.S. side of the U.S.-Mexico border.

Charted here are remains of migrants found each year, in each of the nine sectors into which Border Patrol divides the U.S.-Mexico border. Once they make it over the border, an alarming number of undocumented migrants are dying of exposure, dehydration, or drowning on U.S. soil.

Of the 15 years of data given, 2012 saw the second-highest number of migrant remains: 463, or five migrants dying every four days.

Only in 2005 were there more (492). But in that year, Border Patrol captured [PDF] more than three times as many migrants as it did in 2005. The migrant population was far larger, but the number of deaths was similar. A much larger proportion of the migrant population is dying today.

A big reason is tightened U.S. border security, which has led migrants to attempt the crossing in ever more remote, treacherous, and risky border zones — often, desert wildernesses very far from population centers.

For the past decade, the most deadly of Border Patrol’s nine sectors has been Tucson, Arizona, which has also led all sectors in captured migrants. But that may be changing.

Last year saw a spike in southern Texas, in the Laredo and Rio Grande Valley (McAllen-Brownsville) sectors. The latter sector also saw a doubling in captures of migrants from Central America [PDF] last year; it is likely that more than half of the dead were citizens of Central America, not Mexico.

The situation is worsening rapidly: in just the first three months of 2013, Border Patrol has found a staggering 70 remains in the Rio Grande Valley sector alone.

Here is all $17.3 billion in military and police aid that the...

Fri, 12 Apr 2013 14:31:00 -0400

Here is all $17.3 billion in military and police aid that the United States has given to Latin America between 1996 and the 2014 request. The trend since 2010 has been downward.

The table used for this, listing every country in the region, is at our “Just the Facts” database here.

2 spikes on this graph:

2000 - Plan Colombia initial appropriation.
2008-2010 - Mérida Initiative aid to Mexico.